KABUL - Afghanistan’s two largest opium-growing regions are unlikely to see an increase in cultivation this year, whereas a number of other provinces, particularly in the country’s west, will see modest increases in production. Those were some of the results announced in a yearly report compiled by the United Nations Office on Drugs and Crime (UNODC)

The recently-released report, called the Opium Risk Assessment, points to some encouraging trends. In particular the UNODC study notes that despite the relatively high price commanded by opium, efforts by the government to halt cultivation in the country’s major opium-growing region are having an impact.

“In parts of Hilmand and Kandahar the main dominant reason for declining poppy cultivation is due to improvement in the security situation, campaign by the government, fear of eradication and agricultural assistance,” the study notes.
At the same time, the study noted a strong link between insecurity, lack of agricultural assistance to farmers and opium cultivation.

“Villages with a low level of security and which had not received agricultural assistance in the previous year were significantly more likely to grow poppy in 2012 than villages with good security. Similarly, villages which had been targeted by an anti-poppy awareness campaign were significantly less likely to grow poppy in 2012,” the study notes.

The findings suggest that ten provinces will show no growth in poppy cultivation this year. Six provinces are likely to show an increase in opium cultivation. Three provinces that were poppy-free in 2011 may not remain so in 2012 unless timely eradication is undertaken. Fifteen provinces that were poppy-free in 2011 are likely to remain so in 2012.

The findings suggest varied motives for the increase in poppy cultivation. Seventy one percent of those interviewed said they were motivated by the high price of opium. At the moment the price of opium stands at about $220 per kilo, down from $274 a kilo this time last year, the most lucrative cash crop on a per-acre basis. About 13 percent of respondents cited poverty as the reason for engaging in this type of farming. A third reason, cited by 5 percent of respondents, was the high income generated by opium relative to the amount of land that growing poppies demands.

The main reason for not growing opium, cited by 45 percent of respondents, was that the practice is banned by the government. Other significant factors were adverse climatic conditions (17 percent), decisions by village elders and Shuras (17 percent), and the belief that opium cultivation is against Islam (18 percent).

The UNODC study was jointly planned and carried out with the support of Afghanistan’s Ministry of Counter Narcotics. Village level surveys were undertaken in two phases: in late December, 2011, and then in February and March, 2012. While the number of villages where the survey took place increased over the previous year, the authors note that the overall results are based on a relatively small sample and that the study was designed to assess cultivation trends, not calculating quantitative area estimates. In total, 535 village headmen from poppy growing and non-poppy growing villages were interviewed.